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paper: Macroeconomic policy, growth and income distribution in the Brazilian economy in the 2000s
Author: Franklin Serrano & Ricardo Summa
draft for discussion purposes, vol. , nº , /2011, pp. -

book: Developing Brazil: Overcoming the failure of the Washington consensus
Author: Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira
Boulder, Colorado, Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2009
Abstract: After the 1994 Real Plan ended fourteen years of high inflation in Brazil, the economy was expected - mistakenly - to grow quickly. The book discusses Brazilian economic trajectory from the mid-1990s to the present Lula administration, critically appraising the neoliberal reforms that have curtailed growth and proposing a national development strategy geared toward effective competition in the global marketplace. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system. The failure of the Washington consensus or of conventional orthodoxy in making Brazil to catch up after the 1994 Real Plan stabilized high and inertial inflation.

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paper: Overreaction in Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Booms and Sudden Stops Manuel
Author: Manuel Agosin and Franklin Huaita
Working Paper 295, Department of Economics, Universidad de Chile, vol. , nº , April/2009, pp. -
Abstract: This paper applies the overreaction hypothesis of De Bondt and Thaler (1985), developed for stock price behaviour, to capital flows to emerging markets. We find that a surge in capital flows, or what we call a capital boom, can predict future sharp contractions in capital flows, or sudden stops. We use a large list of possible economic fundamentals as control variables, and the results show that the best predictor of a sudden stop is a preceding capital boom. Moreover, the probability of a country undergoing a sudden stop increases considerably with the length of the boom: this probability more than doubles when the boom is three years old, and rises by three to four times when the boom lasts for four years. These results contradict previous studies that emphasize worsening fundamentals as the ultimate cause of a sudden stop. They also show the enormous negative impacts that sudden stops have on the real economy.

paper: Global Imbalances: An Unconventional View
Author: Vladimir Popov
IDEAs, Oct. 19, 2010. Also published at Iniciativa para la , vol. , nº , /2010, pp. -
Abstract: Maintaining today’s global imbalances would help to overcome the major disproportion of our times – income gap between developed and developing countries. This gap was widening for 500 years and only now, in the recent 50 years, there are some signs that this gap is starting to decrease. The chances to close this gap sooner rather than later would be better, if the West would go into debt, allowing developing countries to have trade surpluses that would help them develop faster. Previously, in 16-20th century, it was the West that was developing faster, accumulating surpluses in trade with “the rest” and using these surpluses to buy assets in developing countries, while “the rest” were going into debt. Now it is time for “the rest” to accumulate assets and for the West to go into debt.

paper: Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Long Term Economic Growth
Author: Victor Polterovich, Vladimir Popov
Slavic Eurasia’s Integration into the World Economy. , vol. , nº , Ed. By S. Tabata and A. Iwashita. Slavic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo. /2004, pp. -
Abstract: Cross-country regressions, reported in this paper for 1960-99 period, suggest that the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves (FER) contributes to economic growth of a developing economy by increasing both the investment/GDP ratio and capital productivity. We offer the following interpretation of these stylized facts: (1) FER accumulation causes real exchange rate (RER) undervaluation that is expansionary in the short run and may have long term effects, if such devaluations are carried out periodically and unexpectedly; (2) RER undervaluation allows to take full advantages of export externality and triggers export-led growth; (3) FER build up attracts foreign direct investment because it increases the credibility of the government of a recipient country and lowers the dollar price of real assets. A three-sector model of endogenous economic growth (including a consumer good sector, investment good sector and an export trade sector) is suggested to demonstrate how undervaluation may improve social welfare. Concepts of FER accumulation trajectories and equilibrium trajectories are introduced. It is demonstrated that small udervaluation of the equilibrium exchange rate may be wealth improving.

book: Globalization and Competition
Author: Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira
Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2010
Abstract: Globalization and Competition focus on middle-income countries in the framework of commercial and financial globalization: the first viewed as an opportunity, the second as a curse. The objective is to explain why some emerging countries are successful in catching up while others are not. Also published in French, Spanish and Portuguese.

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The New Developmentalism Project - Structuralist Development Macroeconomics Center - São Paulo School of Economics of Getulio Vargas Foundation

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